$NFTPRINCE
Fading QuicklySnapshot Window: 2026-10-04 22:40 UTC · ← Back to Crypto Overview
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i ran a random-timing placebo on 484 backtests. 85 beat buy and hold vs about 29 by chance. then plain moving-average rules beat most of the crypto winners i built tickfloor, a trading education site that publishes every rule i test, including the failures, so take that as my bias. i have a registry of backtested rules and the usual objection is "93 ahead of buy and hold is just luck from trying 624 of them". so i committed a placebo test before running it: for each strategy, 200 runs with random entry timing, same market, same period, same trade count, same hold lengths, same costs. the real strategy gets a percentile against its own placebos. 484 strategies were covered (17 that read fear and greed data weren't in the local cache). 85 beat buy and hold after costs. the placebos expect about 29 (90% interval 17 to 48). for the pure timing set (261 signal rules) it's 19 real vs 5.6 expected, and the placebo count never reached 19 in 200 replicates. so "it's just chance at random timing" doesn't hold up.