$KELP
Heating UpSnapshot Window: 2026-09-10 08:50 UTC · ← Back to Crypto Overview
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Verbatim Community Citations & Social Evidence 1 source posts analyzed
max pain doesn't pull price, it walks toward price. and our own corridor metric failed the same test the belief is that price gets pulled toward max pain as expiry approaches. i keep a ledger of every btc and eth expiry on deribit and check afterwards what actually happened. 376 expiries, 7 march to 10 september. the pull is not there, and the reason is more interesting than the result. first, max pain is not sitting somewhere off in the distance waiting for price. at the snapshot a day before settlement it sits a median 1.04% away from spot. it is already where the price is, because open interest piles up around the current price. second, it moves. seven days before settlement, max pain still shifts an average 2.8% of spot on btc before it reaches its final value. three days out it is still 2.1%. only on the last day does it settle down to 0.3%. so when someone says price converged on max pain, a large part of that convergence is max pain walking toward price.