$FABLED
Trending UpSnapshot Window: 2026-08-20 19:10 UTC · ← Back to Crypto Overview
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If you're a fan of data (which you should be), you need to read this thread. tldr: prediction markets provide far more accurate event probabilities than anything that predated them, and make them publicly accessible
AI visual note: A four-panel chart from Kalshi titled "Calibration by Time Horizon" compares predicted probabilities to observed frequencies across 12,939 to 492,114 markets at 3-month, 1-month, 1-week, and 1-day horizons, with data points closely tracking the dashed "Perfect calibration" line. The visualization supports the claim that prediction markets generate highly calibrated, reliable probability estimates across multiple timeframes, demonstrating their superior accuracy compared to traditional forecasting methods.