$NAKA
Heating UpSnapshot Window: 2026-07-21 14:50 UTC · ← Back to Crypto Overview
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I built a simple power law model off Bitcoin's historical bear market lows. 2030: ~$188,000 (30% CAGR from $65,000) 2035: ~$590,000 (28% CAGR from $65,000) [Spoken audio]: This is not financial advice. It is for informational and educational purposes only. One of the things that's always fascinated me about Bitcoin is that every major bear market has established a higher floor than the previous bear market. So I wanted to see if there was a simple mathematical relationship behind that fairly simple observation. Now this chart is the result of this. All this is is simply asking, is there a long term mathematical relationship that describes where Bitcoin tends to bottom? Interestingly, there is. The orange dots are the historical bear market lows. And the blue line is the best fit power law. And the fit is remarkably close. What makes this especially interesting is that power laws show up throughout nature. They're founded things like the growth of cities, river networks, earthquakes, forest fires, and the distribution of wealth globally. They often emerge in decentralized systems where millions of independent participants interact without a central planner. Bitcoin shares many of those same characteristics. Millions of people around the world independently decide when to buy, sell, save and hold Bitcoin. Out of that complexity, a surprisingly simple pattern has appeared to emerge. Now, again, this is not a price prediction. It's simply describing where Bitcoin's historical bear market floors have occurred. If that relationship continues, the model estimates a structural floor of roughly around $61,000 today, around $188,000 by 2030, and roughly $590,000 dollars by 2035. Again, those aren't bull market targets, they're estimates of where major Bitcoin bear market lows could occur if this long term trend continues to persist. So why might this happen? My view is that every cycle creates a larger base of long term Bitcoin holders, individuals, companies, ETFs, institutions, and countries. Each cycle leaves behind a larger group of owners who simply aren't willing to sell at the prices where previous cycles bottomed. Over time, that continually lifts Bitcoin's structural floor. Now, I don't actually think that this power law will hold forever. In fact, I think it actually eventually breaks. But I think it breaks to the upside. You know, a power law implies diminishing returns over time. And Bitcoin has generally behaved that way over the last 17 years. But I think that two exponential forces that are eventually going to become dominant will outweigh the power law. The first is the supply of dollars. Fiat money doesn't grow according to a power law over long periods of time. Money supply has historically grown exponentially. The second is technology itself. I think we're entering one of the biggest technological inflection points in history with AI, robotics, automation and dramatically higher productivity. If AI and robotics accelerate wealth creation while the supply of dollars continues expanding exponentially, those two forces could eventually overwhelm the diminishing return dynamics that have characterized Bitcoin's adoption so far. In other words, Bitcoin could eventually break above this long term power law trend. So I don't view this chart as a prediction. I view it as a good baseline model. It's a simple mathematical model that describes Bitcoin's historical behavior remarkably well so far. The really interesting question is whether the next decade looks like the last or whether Bitcoin enters an entirely new phase where the exponential forces become dominant and the market ultimately breaks above the long-term power law trend. That's what I'll be watching most closely. Thanks for watching everyone and see you next time.
