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$BTC Is this current bounce a reversal or just a corrective rally? Elliott Wave Analysis #Bitcoin [Spoken audio]: The Bitcoin chart is currently giving us a small pullback and nothing major, but you can see already even here on the daily chart That the move to the upset is getting a little bit more choppy We want to talk about what that means in this video. Could they even be a very directly bullish scenario? Could the market rally directly towards the 69 to 72 K area what we're going to do in this video we're going to take a look at the shorter time frame quite quickly. And then I will also show you how that aligns with the liquidation heat map. Before we go to the smaller timeframe, just a couple of sentences here about the daily chart, that's very important to understand the smaller timeframe, because without understanding the overall context of what the chart is presenting, any information about the smaller timeframe is really can likely misunderstood. Let's say it like that, right? So it's always important to stay here for the daily chart because it gives you guys the context. And I see it very often people ask me certain questions and I realize straight away they haven't watched a part where I talk about the context. Very important. The smaller time frame isn't worth much without understanding the context. And the context is telling me that this bounce that started in July is a wave two. It's a corrective rally in a downtrend. Okay you know I could be wrong about that but I told you many times what I would need to see to confirm that that I'm wrong and we're far away from that. I would need to say see and keep it very short. I would need to see a five wave move up followed by a three wave decline. It would likely take us into the current price region anyway but we would need to see first of all the five-wave move up and break above resistance. We do not see that at this stage. Before we even get there, before we can even form five waves up, the bulls would need to break a strong cluster of resistance, specifically here in the area between 69 to 72k. There are a lot of different resistances, not only our Fibonacci resistance and standard targets for a wave two two bounds. No, there's also a trend line. Then we have the short term holder realized price in the area around 69k. We've got the 200 day moving average and the 21 week exponential moving average. So there's a lot of resistance above. And the overall idea remains, and I'm not going to talk too much about it, but just to state the thesis, the overall idea is still that we are here in an A, B, C structure. That C wave is the third phase of the bear market. It's the phase where most people finally realize that Bitcoin is in a bear market. Also those who still believe in a short bear market. Yeah, because there are still claims this year would be a mini bear market. I don't think it's so many. Even if we went to all time highs from here, it was still a significant bear market. But until we break above resistance, the idea is this is a five wave decline, which could take the price at least close to the 40k level. And so what we're doing, we're going to zoom in here in a minute into this price structure for the smaller time frame. And I'll show you how this move to the upside unfolds at the moment that it is a corrective rally. And what we would need to see to confirm the beginning of the third wave to the downside. By the way, the next support levels to watch on the larger time frame chart here, they are 56,350, 51K and 44 and 39K. And by the way, before we dive into the microstructures, make sure to also follow us on X, it's the more crypto online channel, the channel with a golden check mark. We're running several x-channels also in use channel here on x But you get here on the more crypto online channel most of the analysis Plus you get a lot of exclusive video updates basically 24-7. This is running. So feel free to check it out Many I don't think know that we actually run this x-channel and how active it actually is and how many updates there are So if the YouTube updates are not enough for you, there is much more to be found here Now, let us also take a look now at the shorter time frame. This is the 30 minute chart and it shows you the potential wave to bounce that we're tracking, that we have been tracking since the beginning of July. It's exactly what we talked about here on the higher time frame. This rally, that started when the price hit the red support line. located around 57700. Now that's why I'm tracking this as an ABC structure to the upset with resistance visible on the daily chart. That's exactly what you see here on the smaller time frame. Now I think it's important to highlight that each of these short-term bullish scenarios, white and orange, eventually should lead to the same result lower. I will change my view. I told you that if I see a five-wave move up, not just three waves, but five waves. We're far away from that. We haven't even formed a very healthy three-wave move up, so maybe there's some more absurd to come. But I see two main pathways that the market could take to move higher. We'll also talk about the relevant parameters and and invalidation levels, of course, for each of these scenarios. Now, before we dive further here into the two microstructure scenarios, quick reminder, yesterday we looked at the liquidation heat map, right? This is the Bitcoin liquidation heat map, 7-day view in our terminal. And I explained to you that the area around 61.5 to maybe 59K includes a lot of liquidity. Obviously, the market pushed into this liquidity cluster around 65,000 and so a pullback. Not much of a surprise because there wasn't much liquidity above left. As you can see, there's a new cluster that has appeared now in the area around 66.5K, but there's still a lot down there. And so in yesterday's update, I highlighted, well, there's actually a good chance that the market might want to grab that liquidity first before going higher. And this overview here on the liquidation heat map matches very well our orange scenario. The way to define Fibonacci support for this orange count and for the orange B wave is to define or to measure essentially the distance of the A wave length and then usually for the B wave we assume a Fibonacci support area between the 78.6 retracement and the 38.2 retracement, 59 to 62K. That's pretty much where that liquidity cluster is located. So this is what I called yesterday in the days before main support. This is our main support area. It is the more relevant one, whereas there's also an upper micro support and the upper micro support is relevant for the directly bullish account. So as you can see, the main question at the moment is, Well, not so much if an A-wave finished, not so much if we form the five-wave move up into the 6th of July high. It's more like, has the B-wave already bottomed in the white count, or are we still working on the B-wave? But both of these scenarios should essentially lead to higher prices in the short term, and eventually in the medium term, to lower prices. So the more directly bullish count this white scenario. Let me read out those numbers to you. Here we have micro support between 62,570 and 63,200. As long as this zone is holding, it's possible that another local 1,2 setup formed. Now here's the thing. What would confirm that we actually now have a low end wave 2? I would need to see at the very least a break above this green line at 64,900. That would be a first indication that the market is on its way higher in an internal third wave of a larger third wave. So these are two bullish scenarios. The more directly one in white and the one that allows for a little bit more pullback in orange, but both allow for higher prices in the very short term, as long as 62,570 is holding. If the market can't stabilize here. The risk is that a deeper pullback is unfolding as per the orange scenario with key support at 59,190. Please note that the invalidation point for the white scenario is the last swing low that formed at 61,800. And of course, keep you updated about any changes and adjustments, but that should give you a good idea of why the market might have started to pull back. You could say it has to do with the liquidity that's located here. From a chart point of view, it doesn't really matter why. You have the very clear levels and invalidation points to watch. The overall context would also be very clear, hasn't changed. The overall thesis for Q3 hasn't changed. So I think that should, however, with all of this other stuff unchanged, it should give you the most up-to-date support and resistance levels. And as always, I try to provide as much Elliott Wave education as I can in these videos. That's the update on Bitcoin. Hope it was helpful if you're interested in additional updates. I recommend that you check out our membership as well. There are many additional video updates for members here on this channel. Altcoin updates, plus obviously additional Bitcoin and Ethereum updates as well. As a gold member, you can also join our Discord feed where you get many, many updates plus all my TradingView live charts, plus you get access to liquidation heat map plus a lot of additional tools and indicators and there's also a trading plan builder here now available in our terminal. You still have the possibility to shape this with us, this terminal. For example, a few people asked today to add a few more assets that they wanted to have included. We did that this morning. So again, you still have the possibility now as All of this is still in development to shape the whole project with us. Thanks so much. I wish you a great day. Bye bye.
