$PUNDIX
Cooling DownSnapshot Window: 2026-07-16 14:20 UTC · ← Back to Crypto Overview
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The gloves are coming off in the showdown between $COIN and $HOOD Both are leaning into prediction markets, and both are looking to scale their own blockchains But as @FundstratDirect 's @SeanMFarrell tells us — Robinhood is beginning to pull away [Spoken audio]: The other big thing that's happened this year has been a surge in prediction market volumes. And a lot of times people think call sheet, people think polymarket, but it was your report recently that kind of started to highlight how much of this is in Robin Hood's camp as well. So I almost wonder, I want to get into whether you think it's more of like a picks and shovels trade here is just like, okay, if you think crypto is coming back, if you think prediction markets are here to stay, Look no further than Robinhood and you had some great charts in your report as well, which you just kind of want to bring up, which just shows how you've kind of backed out some of the, I guess, the growth on the prediction market side for Robinhood. Is it fair to say that this is kind of, Robinhood's kind of becoming one of the leaders in prediction markets? Yeah. And I think the market is overlooking this fact, you know, I don't know about you, but I'm inundated with Polymarket and Kalshi ads wherever I turn these days. And obviously they've found some interesting product market fit as it pertains to around markets pertaining to, I think, both geopolitical and political events, but as well as sports. So I think a bigger reason why Polymarket and Calci have been leading into advertising as of late is that they've become these quasi-sports books. Robinhood also features those sporty event contracts. And they have demonstrated some very compelling traction in those event contracts over the past several quarters. We've seen that growth in FLECT higher. That chart that you just showed, their last quarterly P&L, 10% of the revenue came from these event contracts, which they have changed the pricing of them a bit. But overall, you know, on a contract basis, they're they're quite profitable for for the business they used to charge about, I think one to 1.1 to 1.2 cents per contract. They've adjusted that pricing a little bit to make it kind of on a sliding scale percentage basis. So they'll end up charging anywhere from, I don't say one to 5% per contract. I don't have the exact formula in front of me. But you know, you compare the growth we've seen as well as the real-time growth that we actually can look at in terms of, you know, policy traction. And I suspect that given, you know, the world cup that we just had, which I think has been a huge catalyst for prediction market volumes, I think that they're probably going to post a pretty impressive June and July in terms of these event contracts. And I suspect that a lot of folks are not. A lot of Investors are perhaps discounting the the creative effects I could have for for their P&L And I guess just from a broader perspective, you know, you mentioned Robinhood performance relative to Coinbase and You know, I think a lot of folks a lot of these fintech companies Coinbase is trying to do the same You know, they're all trying to build this this super app, right where folks can come they can Speculate right on any asset class they want using any financial instrument on chain off chain you name it. I think Robinhood has just done a much better job in executing on that super vision than Coinbase and some of its other peers. And I think that's been reflected in that Robinhood Coinbase spread. Yeah, I mean, looking at that too, it's like a 50% surge in the last three months on Hoodstock. You zoom a little bit further out and maybe not as impressive flat over the last six months. But it is, I mean, would you say that it's still safe to assume they got earnings coming up in, what, a couple of weeks? Still safe to assume that maybe investors have overlooked a good chunk of that and that we hear the earnings report this time around that it could be potentially something that could still have it run here. I don't know if you have kind of a thesis on how much more we could see out of hood, but I don't know. It's been hot recently. Yeah, I don't have an exact price target for you right the second, but I do think that there is some incremental upside left in the stock. And obviously, you know, you look at the Robinhood Coinbase spread, I don't even know if you've mentioned it, but I think the obvious reason for that is that Coinbase is just anchored. It's much more highly levered to crypto than Robinhood is. I think what we saw, we obviously saw a big sell-off in Robinhood and Q1 along with the initial drawdown in crypto. I think that was just the market, you know, fully pricing in, or I should say pricing out any kind of, you know, earnings from, you know, the crypto side of the business. But now like that, now the crypto bait has kind of been priced out and now it's kind of just trading with broader risk asset trends, retail volumes, as well as these ancillary businesses like prediction markets that, you know, I think are showing a lot of compelling traction.