$TX
StableSnapshot Window: 2026-07-11 18:20 UTC · ← Back to Crypto Overview
Social Momentum Summary
Total Engagement - Comments: 3, Retweets: 0, Likes: 8, Impressions: 82
Verbatim Community Citations & Social Evidence 1 source posts analyzed
$BTC is "the most sensitive asset class to liquidity conditions" and the rate outlook just shifted dramatically. @ThomasPerfumo of @krakenfx tells @RemyBlaireNews markets swung 70 to 90 basis points in six months, with oil prices now the "biggest binary event" dictating the [Spoken audio]: The macro picture is indeed getting tougher and this week we did get some volatility when it comes to energy given the situation with the conflict in the Middle East. But we know that for the time being we'll be monitoring inflation as well as the CPI and PPI figures coming out next week. But markets are actively pricing in another potential interest rate hike. And with If New Petro-Kevin Warsh locked in until at least 2030, what do you make of the new regime change and what does that actually mean for crypto in particular Bitcoin? Sure. So for Bitcoin, I personally believe that Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset class to liquidity conditions in capital markets as well as monetary outlook. And what's been very challenging at our data, as you pointed out, is that we've shifted dramatically in terms of the monetary projection. So for example, entering this year, markets were pricing around two rate cuts by the end of 2026. Now we flip that into pricing in on the median side, at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. So we're talking about a 70 to 90 basis point shift in terms of the interest rate outlook for this year in the last six months alone, which is just a crazy statistic. Now for Bitcoin in particular, what's also interesting is that when I look at the projection of the interest rate curve the Fendt Fund's futures, what it's suggesting is that we're going to peak in terms of the interest rate outlook around March or April of 2027. And if you think that the market's pricing in maybe six months ahead, what that kind of means is the tightest expectation is going to take place sometime in the fall this year. So probably around October, November, when people start thinking about line of sight back towards accommodation, at least given the current conditions to your point, the biggest binary event that's happening right now is what's going on with U.S. and Iran and very plainly, whether we achieve some kind of meaningful progress on the diplomatic front or reach another form of escalation, oil prices are going to be the ones that dictate the short-term outlook for interest rates, in my opinion.
