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$DOT Can this structural support trigger a relief rally? Elliott Wave Analysis #DOT [Spoken audio]: Welcome to another update on dots some of you have asked for an update here on this chart and I'm still bearish I'm still I don't see a reason to be bullish on this chart I know a lot of people are still pointing out this chart can turn around it of course can. But we always need a setup for it like a small five wave move up at least the first initial reaction that would be helpful. to signal to us that this bounds in the way for for example has started so please remember that this chart is kind of yeah it's not exactly a lifetime downtrend but we have because I think Coinbase has some of the history cut off here but that doesn't matter for us here at least we have accurate price data and we have a downtrend that started in 2021. So, and for me, even more important is that the chart has formed the five wave decline or formed five waves down into the October 2023 lows. Then we saw a rally a bounce into the swing highs of March 24. From an Elliott wave point of view, this would be either a wave two or a B wave. So a corrective bounce. And then we've seen here this ongoing down trend yeah from the 24 high to where we are now very bearish so far only three waves down the thing is when we have five waves down initially we typically expect the three-wave rally afterwards a corrective rally i gotta say at the time this was difficult to read but i was never really bullish but it could have been that this b-wave extended to the upset but don't worry about that now just want to highlight this was not a very clear three-wave move up this move up into the 24 highs, but then we had a very clear five wave move down no sorry this was also not five down this was three waves down and three waves up so it didn't make it very easy for us but the thing is with the price forming three waves down from the 24 high into the August 24 low the option for a diagonal pattern to the downside emerged which means that after the next corrective rally, the market could start the third wave declined, but and that is the rule in these diagonal structures. When the wave one is a three wave move, then the wave three has to be a three wave move as well. And it seems like that's what the market is doing. As you can see, I have labeled the third wave down that started in December 24 as an ABC structure. We're now likely in the sea wave, possibly late stage sea wave of the third wave. Definitely long enough. We don't need any further extensions in the third wave. I will pay close attention to this level at 75 cents because we are now trading at 83. We're approaching that level. There are two very important levels that overlap there. The 138% extension and the 100% extension, two different ways of measuring. So two Fibonacci levels meet there. So there's a good chance we get a bounce from there, possibly the start of the way for resistance for the way for is between $2 and $20 and $4 and $16. I can't promise you a way for bounds, but it could happen from that region. Definitely an area of interest to watch below. We have 55 cents and 39 cents. Now watching for a corrective bounds is not the same as being bullish, but the potential is there that it's forming the next bounce, which could have a similar category to the bounced from the August, September 24 lows. Similar size, time. That being said, third waves are known to extend also here to the downside. So we might see it go down lower, possibly even into August, September, October until Bitcoin forms a low in the bear market. Then DOT might form a fourth wave rally when Bitcoin recovers eventually then to form that one more low here. What I want to say is the C wave to the downside in the white count in which the in which the five wave move down is unfolding that started in March 24 that seems incomplete and the third wave looks complete but there's no evidence it's you know that we started the next corrective bound so please be aware of that the nearest resistance I can offer on this chart is the $1.04 level the last swing high so I pay close attention to this area, but it doesn't look as if the momentum, the downside momentum is decreasing. At least you have the next resistance, next support. And if we get any five-wave move up on the smaller time frame, it could be the beginning of the wave four bounce.
